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Weather edge finder

Find the mispricing. Skip the bot.

Temprr compares a calibrated forecast against the live market price on every temperature bucket and surfaces the gap that actually clears the spread and fees — no API key, no Python, no black-box bot.

Free to join · members-only at launch · no spam, ever.

Free at launch · model vs market, net of cost.

New York

Highest temp · today
KLGA station DEB blend n=420 live · 12s
Forecast 88°F ±2.1° calibrated
Bucket Market Model Mkt Model
  • ≤ 84°
    6%
    3%
  • 85–86°
    14%
    9%
  • 87–88°
    31%
    46% + 15
  • 89–90°
    33%
    31%
  • 91–92°
    12%
    9%
  • ≥ 93°
    4%
    2%
+15pt edge

87–88° is underpriced. Model fair value is 46% against a 31% market. Invalidate if the high prints before 2pm local.

Illustrative. Live in the terminal.

No code, no bot

Every DIY edge-finder is a Python repo or a $75–$97 bot. Temprr is the same model-vs-price loop — calibrated and correct — without writing or buying anything.

Without Temprr: Clone a GFS-ensemble repo, debug it, host it.

Net of spread and fees

Raw “model minus price” lies. Temprr only flags an edge that survives the spread and fee hurdle — and warns you off the fee-toxic cheap tail.

Without Temprr: Find a “20% edge,” lose it to fees and spread.

Calibrated against history

A divergence is only edge if the model is honest about its tails. Temprr’s distribution is fat-tail-aware and bias-corrected per station — so 90% means 90%.

Without Temprr: Trust a Gaussian model, blow up on a 2σ day.

How it works

From forecast to a priced, tradable edge.

01

Anchor to the gauge that settles

Pick a city. Temprr pins the market to its exact settlement station and pulls live official observations — METAR/TAF plus native networks (JMA, HKO, CWA, KNMI, Météo-France).

02

Calibrate the distribution

DEB blends multiple forecast models into a fat-tail-aware probability over the market’s exact temperature buckets, bias-corrected per station and validated against history.

03

Surface the edge — and the rule

Live Polymarket odds overlay the model. Temprr shows the divergence, whether it clears the spread, and the invalidation rule that kills the trade.

See the edge before the book catches up.

Join the waitlist for an early, free seat in the weather-edge terminal.

Free to join · members-only at launch · no spam, ever.