Find the mispricing. Skip the bot.
Temprr compares a calibrated forecast against the live market price on every temperature bucket and surfaces the gap that actually clears the spread and fees — no API key, no Python, no black-box bot.
Free at launch · model vs market, net of cost.
New York
Highest temp · today- ≤ 84° 6%3%
- 85–86° 14%9%
- 87–88° 31%46% + 15
- 89–90° 33%31%
- 91–92° 12%9%
- ≥ 93° 4%2%
87–88° is underpriced. Model fair value is 46% against a 31% market. Invalidate if the high prints before 2pm local.
Illustrative. Live in the terminal.
No code, no bot
Every DIY edge-finder is a Python repo or a $75–$97 bot. Temprr is the same model-vs-price loop — calibrated and correct — without writing or buying anything.
Without Temprr: Clone a GFS-ensemble repo, debug it, host it.
Net of spread and fees
Raw “model minus price” lies. Temprr only flags an edge that survives the spread and fee hurdle — and warns you off the fee-toxic cheap tail.
Without Temprr: Find a “20% edge,” lose it to fees and spread.
Calibrated against history
A divergence is only edge if the model is honest about its tails. Temprr’s distribution is fat-tail-aware and bias-corrected per station — so 90% means 90%.
Without Temprr: Trust a Gaussian model, blow up on a 2σ day.
How it works
From forecast to a priced, tradable edge.
Anchor to the gauge that settles
Pick a city. Temprr pins the market to its exact settlement station and pulls live official observations — METAR/TAF plus native networks (JMA, HKO, CWA, KNMI, Météo-France).
Calibrate the distribution
DEB blends multiple forecast models into a fat-tail-aware probability over the market’s exact temperature buckets, bias-corrected per station and validated against history.
Surface the edge — and the rule
Live Polymarket odds overlay the model. Temprr shows the divergence, whether it clears the spread, and the invalidation rule that kills the trade.
Read next
How to trade weather markets
Stations, model lag, peak-window timing, fat tails — and edge that clears the spread.
Read →Resolution stations, city by city
The exact gauge every Polymarket & Kalshi market settles on. The #1 silent edge-killer.
Read →Kalshi vs Polymarket weather
Different settlement sources, stations and brackets — and where 1°F flips a contract.
Read →See the edge before the book catches up.
Join the waitlist for an early, free seat in the weather-edge terminal.