The weather is priced wrong.
Temprr shows you where.
A calibrated weather-trading terminal for Polymarket and Kalshi daily-temperature markets. Official station observations and multi-model forecasts, turned into a live edge against the market price.
Free during open beta · members-only.
- ✓ Free to use
- ✓ 50 cities
- ✓ No API key
- ✓ Paste a public wallet for P&L
New York
Highest temp · today- ≤ 84° 6%3%
- 85–86° 14%9%
- 87–88° 31%46% + 15
- 89–90° 33%31%
- 91–92° 12%9%
- ≥ 93° 4%2%
87–88° is underpriced. Model fair value is 46% against a 31% market. Invalidate if the high prints before 2pm local.
Illustrative. Live in the terminal.
Why traders lose edge
The market is priced wrong. The hard part is seeing where.
The edge is real — on-chain leaderboards prove it. But it leaks out through five recurring mistakes. Temprr is built to close each one.
“I was providing exit liquidity for the bots that got there first.”
Amateurs poll forecasts every 15–60 minutes. The repricing window is now 5–15.
Temprr recomputes fair value every 60s against live obs and overlays the live book — so you see divergence the moment it opens, not after.
Trading the wrong station silently loses trades.
KLGA runs 3–5°F cooler than midtown; the gauge even differs between series.
Every market is pinned to its verified settlement station. Your obs, forecast and buckets all reference the gauge that actually settles.
“Weather doesn’t follow a bell curve. My model did.”
A “2-sigma” event that should hit 5% of the time actually hits 10–12%.
DEB blends multiple models into a calibrated, fat-tail-aware distribution, validated against history — the empirical-error layer DIY models skip.
The picture is scattered across a dozen tabs and timezone math.
NWS, Weather.com, Ventusky, Windy, METAR — plus Zulu-to-local conversions.
One terminal: official obs + multi-model forecast + calibrated bucket distribution + live odds + peak-window, in the station’s local time.
The terminal
Everything the trade needs, on one screen.
Temprr replaces a dozen browser tabs and a spreadsheet with a single, calibrated, evidence-first view of every daily-temperature market.
Right station, every time
Every market is anchored to its exact settlement gauge — NYC on KLGA, Paris on Le Bourget, not the city center. The #1 silent edge-killer, designed out by default.
Calibrated, not Gaussian
A fat-tail-aware bucket distribution with per-station bias correction and a visible uncertainty band — not a naive bell curve that blows up on the tails.
The edge, surfaced
Model fair value vs live market price, rendered as an explicit per-bucket divergence. The one comparison no competitor puts on screen.
See it first, not race it
Calibrated fair value recomputed every 60 seconds against live observations, with freshness in concrete minutes. Spot divergence the moment it opens.
Net edge after fees
We surface whether a divergence actually clears the spread and fee hurdle before you trade — steering you away from the fee-toxic cheap tail.
It shows its work
Evidence chain, settlement-station label, calibration sample size and a live freshness dot. Methodology as the trust signal — no black box, no hype.
How it works
From forecast to a priced, tradable edge.
Anchor to the gauge that settles
Pick a city. Temprr pins the market to its exact settlement station and pulls live official observations — METAR/TAF plus native networks (JMA, HKO, CWA, KNMI, Météo-France).
Calibrate the distribution
DEB blends multiple forecast models into a fat-tail-aware probability over the market’s exact temperature buckets, bias-corrected per station and validated against history.
Surface the edge — and the rule
Live Polymarket odds overlay the model. Temprr shows the divergence, whether it clears the spread, and the invalidation rule that kills the trade.
The scanner
Today’s sharpest edges, ranked across the board.
Temprr scans every daily-temperature market at once and ranks them by how far the model disagrees with the price — already net of spread and fees. The biggest mispricing of the day is the top row, not a needle in fifty haystacks.
- New York KLGAHigh 87–88°F 31% → 46% +15
- Jeddah OEJNHigh 42–43°C 19% → 33% +14
- Chicago KMDWHigh 84–85°F 24% → 35% +11
- Tokyo RJTTHigh 32–33°C 28% → 38% +10
- Madrid LEMDHigh 37–38°C 22% → 31% +9
- London EGLCLow 12–13°C 30% → 38% +8
Ranked by net edge after spread & fees. Representative snapshot — live in the terminal.
AI co-pilot
At launchEvery edge, explained in plain English.
A number says what. Temprr’s co-pilot says why — what the model sees that the market doesn’t, the evidence behind it, and the one thing that would kill the trade. Then it lands in your inbox each morning.
Edge read
New York · 87–88° · High
This bucket is underpriced. The model puts it at 46% against a 31% market — a +15pt gap. The intraday path is running ~1.2° above the midday forecast, and KLGA’s afternoon sea-breeze usually arrives after the daily max is set, so the cooling won’t cap it. Four of the last five analog days closed in this bucket.
Kills if the high prints before 2:00pm local, or KLGA’s wind backs onshore and holds.
Your 7:00am briefing
daily- New York 87–88°F +15
- Jeddah 42–43°C +14
- Chicago 84–85°F +11
Delivered to email or Telegram — the board, distilled.
The co-pilot explains the model’s reasoning — it never gives buy or sell advice. You decide what, and whether, to trade.
Execution
Polymarket live Kalshi at launchFrom edge to filled — in one click.
See it, understand it, take it — without ever leaving the terminal or copy-pasting a token ID. Temprr sizes the trade, checks it clears fees, and arms the exit. You pull the trigger.
New York
87–88°F · High · today
Won’t arm if net edge < spread + fees · exit rule pre-armed
Fee & spread aware
Won’t arm a trade that doesn’t clear the cost hurdle — no fee-toxic cheap tail.
Kelly-disciplined sizing
A suggested size from your bankroll and the edge. You set the final number.
Auto-invalidation
At launchPre-arm the bucket-dead exit. Get pinged — or auto-flatten — the moment it triggers.
Paper mode
At launchProve the edge with simulated fills before a cent is at risk.
One trade per city
Buckets in a city settle on one gauge. Temprr stops you stacking a correlated bet as if it were four.
You stay in control
No autonomous trading. Temprr makes acting instant; the call is always yours.
Illustrative order ticket. Polymarket execution rolling out — Kalshi at launch.
Global coverage
Built for Polymarket and the world — not four US cities.
50 cities with live official feeds — each wired to its native station source (JMA, HKO, CWA, KNMI, Météo-France, SMN and others). Every node is lit by its current temperature; hover for the settlement station.
Representative current conditions. Live in the terminal.
Who it’s for
For everyone who knows the weather is tradable.
The model-checker
You pull GFS/ECMWF and METAR by hand and keep a spreadsheet. Temprr is that spreadsheet, calibrated, live, and right about the station.
The quant-curious builder
You cloned a GFS-ensemble bot or read the “$1k → $24k” thread. Skip the data plumbing — start from a correct, calibrated layer.
The cross-platform arbitrageur
You trade Kalshi and Polymarket. See both settlement sources side by side and the 1°F boundary cases that flip a contract.
The curious crossover
You came via Robinhood-Kalshi or a Polymarket meme. Plain-language reads, the right station, and guardrails before you size up.
FAQ
Questions, answered.
What is Temprr? +
Temprr is a weather-intelligence trading terminal for daily-temperature prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. It turns official station observations and multi-model forecasts into a calibrated probability over each market’s temperature buckets, then overlays the live market price to show where the two diverge.
Which markets does it cover? +
Daily highest/lowest temperature markets across 50 cities worldwide — the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific — with native official feeds per region (JMA, HKO, CWA, KNMI, Météo-France, SMN) on top of METAR/ASOS.
Is it free? +
Yes. Temprr is free and members-only during open beta — no payment, no API key required. Create an account and the terminal opens immediately.
Does Temprr place trades for me? +
Yes — Polymarket trading is built in. Place a trade in one click, straight off the edge you’re reading, instead of copy-pasting tokens between tabs. Kalshi execution arrives later this year. You stay in control of what and how much you trade; Temprr surfaces the edge, the evidence and the invalidation rule, then makes acting on it instant.
Get in before the book does.
Temprr is in open beta and free. Create an account and start today.
Free during open beta · members-only.