Kalshi temperature markets, priced properly.
Calibrated probabilities and a live, fee-adjusted edge for Kalshi’s daily highest-temperature brackets — aware of the exact NWS station, the LST settlement window, and the fee drag that kills cheap-tail bets.
Free at launch · NWS-station aware · net-of-fee EV.
New York
Highest temp · today- ≤ 84° 6%3%
- 85–86° 14%9%
- 87–88° 31%46% + 15
- 89–90° 33%31%
- 91–92° 12%9%
- ≥ 93° 4%2%
87–88° is underpriced. Model fair value is 46% against a 31% market. Invalidate if the high prints before 2pm local.
Illustrative. Live in the terminal.
NWS-station & settlement aware
Kalshi settles on the next-day NWS Climate Report in Local Standard Time — a different source and clock than Polymarket. Temprr knows the gauge, the LST window, and the DST shift that breaks naive midnight math.
Fee-adjusted EV per bracket
A $0.01 fee on a $0.05 contract is a 20% tax. Temprr surfaces net edge after spread and fees per bracket, and flags the cheap-tail death zone before you buy in.
Calibrated, not a single model
A multi-model, fat-tail-aware distribution over Kalshi’s temperature brackets — the layer that turns a forecast into a probability you can actually price against.
The same day can settle 1°F apart on Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Temprr shows both settlement sources side by side, with a boundary-divergence flag — so you can hedge or arbitrage the gap instead of getting caught by it.
Compare the two →For the Kalshi trader
Everything the Kalshi temperature trade needs.
Calibrated brackets, net-of-fee edge, station awareness and a wallet read — without juggling a dozen tabs.
Right station, every time
Every market is anchored to its exact settlement gauge — NYC on KLGA, Paris on Le Bourget, not the city center. The #1 silent edge-killer, designed out by default.
Calibrated, not Gaussian
A fat-tail-aware bucket distribution with per-station bias correction and a visible uncertainty band — not a naive bell curve that blows up on the tails.
The edge, surfaced
Model fair value vs live market price, rendered as an explicit per-bucket divergence. The one comparison no competitor puts on screen.
See it first, not race it
Calibrated fair value recomputed every 60 seconds against live observations, with freshness in concrete minutes. Spot divergence the moment it opens.
Net edge after fees
We surface whether a divergence actually clears the spread and fee hurdle before you trade — steering you away from the fee-toxic cheap tail.
It shows its work
Evidence chain, settlement-station label, calibration sample size and a live freshness dot. Methodology as the trust signal — no black box, no hype.
Stop guessing the daily high. Know it.
Temprr is in private beta. Join the waitlist for an early, free members-only seat.