Live Polymarket weather odds, with the edge built in.
Temprr tracks every Polymarket daily-temperature bucket against a calibrated, fat-tail-aware forecast — anchored to the exact station that settles the market — and shows you, per bucket, where the price is wrong.
Free during open beta · 50 cities · paste a public wallet for P&L.
New York
Highest temp · today- ≤ 84° 6%3%
- 85–86° 14%9%
- 87–88° 31%46% + 15
- 89–90° 33%31%
- 91–92° 12%9%
- ≥ 93° 4%2%
87–88° is underpriced. Model fair value is 46% against a 31% market. Invalidate if the high prints before 2pm local.
Illustrative. Live in the terminal.
Bucket-native, not Kalshi-retrofit
Temprr reads Polymarket’s neg-risk bucket grid directly and maps the calibrated distribution onto the exact same brackets you trade — no translation, no mismatched tail buckets.
The international cities others skip
London on a different gauge than the city; Paris on Le Bourget; Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Seoul, Istanbul, Moscow — wired to native feeds. This is where the edge still lives.
Live odds, recomputed against the weather
Model fair value refreshes every 60 seconds against live observations and overlays the live book — so you catch divergence as it opens, not after the bots close it.
On the Polymarket book
A terminal that speaks Polymarket.
Bucket odds, mispricing radar, peak-window timing and wallet P&L — purpose-built for the way Polymarket weather markets actually resolve.
Right station, every time
Every market is anchored to its exact settlement gauge — NYC on KLGA, Paris on Le Bourget, not the city center. The #1 silent edge-killer, designed out by default.
Calibrated, not Gaussian
A fat-tail-aware bucket distribution with per-station bias correction and a visible uncertainty band — not a naive bell curve that blows up on the tails.
The edge, surfaced
Model fair value vs live market price, rendered as an explicit per-bucket divergence. The one comparison no competitor puts on screen.
See it first, not race it
Calibrated fair value recomputed every 60 seconds against live observations, with freshness in concrete minutes. Spot divergence the moment it opens.
Net edge after fees
We surface whether a divergence actually clears the spread and fee hurdle before you trade — steering you away from the fee-toxic cheap tail.
It shows its work
Evidence chain, settlement-station label, calibration sample size and a live freshness dot. Methodology as the trust signal — no black box, no hype.
Global coverage
Built for Polymarket and the world — not four US cities.
50 cities with live official feeds — each wired to its native station source (JMA, HKO, CWA, KNMI, Météo-France, SMN and others). Every node is lit by its current temperature; hover for the settlement station.
Representative current conditions. Live in the terminal.
Read next
How to trade weather markets
Stations, model lag, peak-window timing, fat tails — and edge that clears the spread.
Read →Resolution stations, city by city
The exact gauge every Polymarket & Kalshi market settles on. The #1 silent edge-killer.
Read →Kalshi vs Polymarket weather
Different settlement sources, stations and brackets — and where 1°F flips a contract.
Read →Trade the Polymarket weather book with your eyes open.
Temprr is in open beta and free. Create an account and start today.
Free during open beta · members-only.