Guides
Trade the weather like you mean it.
Plain-spoken field guides to daily-temperature prediction markets — written for traders, not meteorologists.
Playbook 2026-06-21
How to trade weather markets on Polymarket & Kalshi
The full playbook: how daily-temperature markets resolve, why the station matters, model lag, peak-window timing, fat tails, and edge that clears the spread.
Read the guide → Reference 2026-06-21
Polymarket weather resolution stations (city table)
The exact airport/ASOS station every Polymarket and Kalshi temperature market settles on, city by city — the #1 silent edge-killer, fixed.
Read the guide → Comparison 2026-06-21
Kalshi vs Polymarket weather markets, compared
Different settlement sources (NWS CLI vs Weather Underground), stations, brackets and fees — and exactly where a 1°F gap flips a contract.
Read the guide →